Embreier · Kalyr · First conversations
Which decisions are worth a first meeting?
One entry per company and decision family. Fill in what you know and leave the rest as Unknown. We're not asking for any customer data at this stage.
What we already know is in. Add an entry for any other decision family, for example PMI sales forecasting.
Decision, 500 episodes, USD 3 million, owner and route, comparator. Then the three questions you'd want answered in a first meeting.
Send to Quintana, top right, sends every entry as one report. That's all.
What the words mean
Decision family: the same trigger, the same role deciding, a set of permitted options and a measurable outcome, repeated many times. A broad problem ("forecast accuracy", "downtime") becomes a decision family once we name the choice someone makes inside it.
Completed past episode: one past case where we could know what was true before, what was chosen and what happened.
Controllable value: the money a better decision could change in a year: episodes per year × a conservative value swing per episode. Not company revenue or total plant cost.
Comparator: what we would be measured against today: the SOP, the planner, the expert, a vendor tool or a model.
Not decision families on their own: a prediction (predictive maintenance: the decision after the alert is the family), an outcome (carbon footprint), visibility or reporting.
Open
The decision
In the customer's wordsThe five tests
Unknown is fine1. Repeated choiceThe same choice comes back again and again, with real options.
Unknown2. A path to 500 completed past episodesEnough past cases exist, or will exist soon, to compare decisions fairly.
Unknown3. At least USD 3 million a year of controllable valueEpisodes per year × a conservative swing per episode.
Unknown4. Owner and our route to themThe person accountable for the outcome, and how we reach them.
Unknown5. What we would be compared withToday's SOP, planner, expert, vendor tool or model.
UnknownThree questions for the first meeting
One per red lineAfter the first meeting: can it be customer number one?
This part is for after a first meeting, from what the owner tells us.
Not met yet
All decision families
Ready to book first, then open, then not now| Company | Decision family | This week | Outcome | Owner and route | Comparator | Still open | After meeting |
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